Small Bear's Endangered Species List

[pinkjimiphoton]

yikes.

this doesn't bode well. time to start recycling/scavenging stuff whenever possible i guess. buy out radio shack's stock every month.

they tell me as long as they sell ONE of each item per month, they'll keep stocking them.

but...
thinking about it a little bit....

maybe it WON'T effect us as badly as it seems...as most big commercial manufacturers are going to SMT,  they won't be competing with us for parts, and we should be able to keep going for a good 20 years or so with a good supply of stuff.

i mean, there's BILLIONS of components out there, still, at this point...how many do we actually use in the diy market? a lot, but barely a drop in the bucket when ya think of it.

not saying it's not a finite amount, but to play devil's advocate, is rationing stuff really necessary at this point?

obviously the scalper mentality will try and stockpile in hopes of getting top dollar... but this reminds me of the oil fiasco.

we hit peak production. ok....that means half the resource is gone. does that mean the price has to go up that much, realistically, while we search out alternatives?

or does it become an artificial inflation?

tubes stopped being produced here 40 years ago roughly. there was/is "gonna be a shortage".

well, with some components, yes... but there millions of NOS tubes out there, and seeing the "fringe market" demanding them, manufacturers did indeed step up to the plate.

absolutely no dis intended to steve or any other small suppliers..

but it seems to me, some of this may be kinda premature. YMMV.

peace.

[Jdansti]

This is plain ol' economics 101.

The demand for through hole continues to dwindle relative to the demand for SMD. Manufacturers want to convert their through hole manufacturing capacity to SMD because SMD is more profitable (due to the demand).  The cost of floor space, equipment, and labor currently being used for through hole production causes it to become less and less profitable (due to lower demand). Manufacturers will only allow this to go so far, after all, they can't pay the bills and employees unless they bring in more money than they spend.

Tubes suvived this because customers of amp manufacturers demanded the "tube sound", so tubes remained in a high enough demand for some manufacturers to continue to produce them.  If the DIYers are the only folks demanding through hole components, the demand won't be high enough for manufacturers to continue to produce them.  Perhaps there are other sources of demand that I'm not aware of.

[smallbearelec]

guess it's time to stock up on as much stuff as concievably possible.

NO! Not unless you build for profit and have to have inventory. As I said, DIY quantities WILL be available at SBE, and probably other places, for a bunch of years.

what about china? think they'll step up to the plate and start mass-producing stuff if they see a market?

It has to be a pretty Large market, e.g. tubes for high-end guitar amps and other gear, or BBD chips for delay pedals. I doubt that anyone will do it for JFETs that might sell for $ 05.

[culturejam]

First they came for the JFETs... 


I kinda wonder what the life expectancy of through-hole resistors and caps are?  I've been doing occasional projects with at least some SMD just to get comfortable with it. It's a little more tedious, but certainly not all that difficult.

[Jazznoise]

My brother works for a Semiconducter manufacturing company and he says that most of a DIP IC is basicly just a package and the legs, the actualy silicon peice is as large these days as it would be in a standard SMT package.

It's a shame that we may lose JFETs and BJT's altogether, the surface-mount element is merely an inconveniance by comparison. It's scary to think we might soon live in a world were tube equipment might be easier to service than early solid-state!

[garcho]

Even though I'm a total hack and don't know what hell I'm doing and even though I don't make a living servicing old junk and even though I haven't yet made my echoplexsubcommanderringstinger, I accept the challenge of making weird crap, no matter what's available! Hi-yo, into the future!

[amptramp]

if they see a market

Not so sure our market even registers a blip on manufacturers' radars. Just gonna have to start rolling our own capacitors. Imagine the size of the enclosures needed to house a pedal built with DIY components. 

YATS, circa 2025:

And that's just a fuzz face.

[amptramp]

Tubes suvived this because customers of amp manufacturers demanded the "tube sound", so tubes remained in a high enough demand for some manufacturers to continue to produce them.  If the DIYers are the only folks demanding through hole components, the demand won't be high enough for manufacturers to continue to produce them.  Perhaps there are other sources of demand that I'm not aware of.

I can see us arguing twenty years from now about "TO-92 sound" and "3-legged plastic mojo".

[Bill Mountain]

I've recently been attracted to tag board and turret board layouts.  I'm thinking I may just need to make an SMD breakout PCB that I can load up and hot glue into the corner.  Then make some sort of multipin connection with the tag board.

Crazy.  I know.

I've been thinking the same thing about DIP and SMD IC's.

[Jazznoise]

It has to be a pretty Large market, e.g. tubes of high-end guitar amps and other gear, or BBD chips for delay pedals. I doubt that anyone will do it for JFETs that might sell for $ 05.

I guess they'll just cost more if manufacture does go ahead! Overproduction means that very few industries are extremely profitable except the ones that generate artifical demand (Health, Arms, Insurance) and even then they have their own problems.

But enough Marxism, my big worry for the through-hole thing is universities. How are kids going to learn any of this stuff anymore?

[Jdansti]

Tubes suvived this because customers of amp manufacturers demanded the "tube sound", so tubes remained in a high enough demand for some manufacturers to continue to produce them.  If the DIYers are the only folks demanding through hole components, the demand won't be high enough for manufacturers to continue to produce them.  Perhaps there are other sources of demand that I'm not aware of.

I can see us arguing twenty years from now about "TO-92 sound" and "3-legged plastic mojo".

Very possible!

20 years from now we'll also be telling our grandchildren that when we were their age, we didn't have those tiny little specs of pepper sitting on tiny PCBs, we had very large components, some as big as an aspirin or even a dime. They had really long wires hanging off of them that we stuck through big holes in these giant PCBs and then we slapped humongous globs of toxic lead solder on them.

[Jdansti]

Tubes suvived this because customers of amp manufacturers demanded the "tube sound", so tubes remained in a high enough demand for some manufacturers to continue to produce them.  If the DIYers are the only folks demanding through hole components, the demand won't be high enough for manufacturers to continue to produce them.  Perhaps there are other sources of demand that I'm not aware of.

I can see us arguing twenty years from now about "TO-92 sound" and "3-legged plastic mojo".

Very possible!

20 years from now we'll also be telling our grandchildren that when we were their age, we didn't have those tiny little specs of pepper sitting on tiny PCBs, we had very large components, some as big as an aspirin or even a dime. They had really long wires hanging off of them that we stuck through big holes in these giant PCBs and then we slapped humongous globs of toxic lead solder on them.

Maybe by then they'll have circuit board printers that spit out boards with SMD components already solderd in place based on your design in a software package.

[Tony Forestiere]

 


Maybe by then they'll have circuit board printers that spit out boards with SMD components already solderd in place based on your design in a software package

That would be cool! Of course, the "PNP Blue" versus the "Glossy Magazine Paper" debate won't be much fun anymore, will it? 

***Slowly backs out of the room***

[smallbearelec]

...to play devil's advocate, is rationing stuff really necessary at this point?

For SBE, unfortunately and to some extent, yeah. Please put yourself in my paws(!) for a minute and think on the business decision that confronted me: I have numerous commercial accounts, domestic and foreign, who depend on SBE as a general store. Many of these shops would probably like to buy enough parts to support a few years of production. But they can't realistically deal with brokerages, partly because of high minimum orders and partly because the market is an un-policed jungle. But if I sell out everything I have in large lots, I have to replace that stock from the broker market. I can't entirely say No to these customers, partly because they have been very good to me, and partly because I would be cutting my own throat; if they can't get key parts, they are dead in the water, and, ultimately, so am I. So I've done what I think I had to do: set purchase limits and raised them as I have found long-term stock.

I hope this makes some sense.

SD

[Jdansti]

It sounds to me like you're doing everything you can to provide enough stock for your customers for as long as possible. Of course there will come a day when the stock will be gone (based on what we know about these end of life components at this time). Whether it's two or 20 years from now, it will happen.

This is a little like the "buggy whip" metaphor. The difference being that a few mom and pop operations can make buggy whips for the few Amish and rodeo folks that still use buggies.  I doubt that a small business will be able to manufacture through hole semiconductor components for the "few" that still want them.

You mentioned the "un-policed jungle" and I agree that running a business is like being in a jungle where you have to identify threats early and adapt to stay alive. It's not always pretty or fun, but it's a law of nature that can't be changed.

[jkokura]

Maybe by then they'll have circuit board printers that spit out boards with SMD components already solderd in place based on your design in a software package.

I think what will be much more likely is that we will soon be doing the design and assembly work of pedals, but eventually the actual populating process will pass. Like CJ mentioned, working with SMD is possible, but fewer of us will be willing to do it than the guys willing to work with the through hole stuff. I think it's a long ways off, but the industry has certainly developed.

Steve would probably have the history down better than I, having been the major supplier for a number of years (decades?) now. I wonder if anyone here remembers how expensive 3PDT switches were 10 years ago? There's a reason the Millennium Bypass was necessary back in the early 2000s. Many builds were on perf or vero, and the concept of having manufactured boards was reserved for companies willing to invest a lot. There were few places to get parts, and Smallbear was perhaps the first (and only) place to get Pedal specific parts for a long time.

Now, anyone can learn to use eagle in a day, and then you can submit your own PCB to be manufactured and dropped at your door in 2 or 3 weeks for a few bucks. There are more suppliers than ever before and even the mega stores like Mouser have become accessible for us. True, Radio Shack has almost died, but when you can get 3PDT switches for $2.50 each in quantity, it's a good time to be building.

I think the next stage is having places like Oshpark/Dorkbot that will supply you not only with your manufactured PCB, but will also have the board populated with SMD parts. In fact, I expect that we'll see the prices we're currently spending on our manufactured PCBs be about the same price as the populated PCBs. You'll be able to design your own layout, specify the parts, and then get YATS pcbs, stuffed and delivered to your door for less than $10 a piece. A finished pedal, all the parts and enclosure and everything, will cost you less than $25.

Mark my words, this is not far into the future. If you look at the development of this 'hobby' in the last 10 years, I think this is the next step.

Jacob

[Paul Marossy]

I think the next stage is having places like Oshpark/Dorkbot that will supply you not only with your manufactured PCB, but will also have the board populated with SMD parts. In fact, I expect that we'll see the prices we're currently spending on our manufactured PCBs be about the same price as the populated PCBs. You'll be able to design your own layout, specify the parts, and then get YATS pcbs, stuffed and delivered to your door for less than $10 a piece. A finished pedal, all the parts and enclosure and everything, will cost you less than $25.

Mark my words, this is not far into the future. If you look at the development of this 'hobby' in the last 10 years, I think this is the next step.

If these are prophetic words and this does become reality, where does that leave the "boutique" pedal makers? If a guy can go to Target and get something that sounds as good as a Tube Screamer for $15-20, why would he pay $199 for some hand made pedal with thru-hole parts?

[defaced]

If a guy can go to Target and get something that sounds as good as a Tube Screamer for $15-20, why would he pay $199 for some hand made pedal with thru-hole parts?

Same reason boutique pedals exist now: exclusivity. 

[Paul Marossy]

If a guy can go to Target and get something that sounds as good as a Tube Screamer for $15-20, why would he pay $199 for some hand made pedal with thru-hole parts?

Same reason boutique pedals exist now: exclusivity.  

Maybe. But that's not the only reason why people go boutique. It seems that many people think they're better than one made in a big factory somewhere by machines that's not true bypass, etc. etc. But as the world economy gets worse (and will continue to get worse as every economy in the world now seems to be debt based with their debt increasing every year), I don't think people will be as ready to shell out the money on them like they used to because their buying power is shrinking every day.

[defaced]

On a philosophical level I'd like to agree with you.  On a reality level, people buy crap they can't afford every day and will continue to do so as long as they can.  I often have to remind myself, not everyone understands the technical side of things or thinks critically when being sold something, so if it sounds good and can be justified, the person buys it.